The more President Trump tweets, the worse the stock market performs.
That’s according to new research conducted by the Bank of America, which found that the number of tweets Trump sends in a single day directly correlates with market performance.
Since 2016, days with more than 35 tweets from Trump have seen negative returns, with a 9 basis point drag. However, days with less than five tweets have seen positive returns, with a 5 basis point boost, which is a “statistically significant” number.
When the president tweets, he frequently shares economic policy proposals -- like his suggestion last week that he’s, once again, flirting with the idea of indexing capital gains to inflation -- but also criticizes both the Federal Reserve and its chairman, Jerome Powell.
On Tuesday, while tweeting, Trump had already lambasted the Fed for not aggressively lowering interest rates, warned China about delaying trade talks and seemingly threatened to heighten the trade stand-off with the European Union.
Stocks were sharply lower, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropping almost 1 percent when it opened amid the renewed trade tensions between the U.S. and China.
Germany, and so many other countries, have negative interest rates, “they get paid for loaning money,” and our Federal Reserve fails to act! Remember, these are also our weak currency competitors!— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) September 3, 2019
For all of the “geniuses” out there, many who have been in other administrations and “taken to the cleaners” by China, that want me to get together with the EU and others to go after China Trade practices remember, the EU & all treat us VERY unfairly on Trade also. Will change!— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) September 3, 2019
U.S. economic policy uncertainty is contributing to a three-year high in stock-market volatility as well, the research concluded. Another round of tariffs on Chinese goods, some of which went into effect on Sept. 1, pose another downside to the economic outlook.
“Tread cautiously,” the note advised.