Maybe it’s not such a good thing that Netflix (NFLX) is a FAANG stock.
That’s the thinking of Imperial Capital analyst David Miller—whose $459 price target is among the highest on Wall Street, according to FactSet—on Friday reiterated his Outperform rating while bumping 2018 estimates upward on projected subscriber growth.
Netflix stock, down about 1.3% in Friday trading, is up about 50% in 2018 but down 23% this quarter.
“Despite an impressive earnings release on Oct. 17 in which Netflix roundly beat every relevant consensus metric, and its own guidance, the stock is essentially back to where it was in mid-April,” Miller wrote. “The reason for that is either poor market psychology surrounding the rest of ‘FAANG’”—shorthand for Facebook (FB), Apple (AAPL), Amazon.com (AMZN), Netflix, and Google parent Alphabet (GOOGL)—“and/or third-quarter financial results from the rest of ‘FAANG,’ which came up short of expectations.”
The issues at other FAANG stocks, Miller suggested, have “nothing to do with Netflix. As such, we would advise investors [to] ignore the noise around ‘FAANG,’ and instead focus on core fundamentals, which for Netflix are quite healthy.”
Wall Street isn’t exactly bearish on Netflix. FactSet’s average price target on the stock is around $407, suggesting a 42% upside.
MKM Partners’ Rob Sanderson on Friday raised his price target on Netflix to $415, up from $395, saying that it’s the “strongest company in Media” and forecasting peak net customer additions in 2021 or 2022.
He also raised his target on Amazon to $2,240 from $2,215, 3% above FactSet’s average. “We believe secular forces and competitive advantage are very much intact for Amazon and expect share migration will continue well into the next decade,” he wrote.
Amazon stock was off 1.6% at around $1,593 Friday. Spotify Technology (SPOT) stock was down 1.9% near $134; Sanderson on Friday cut his price target on the stock to $200 from $245, about 7% above FactSet’s average.
“Tech megacaps held on to sector leadership until late-summer and have been correcting more than the market over the past few weeks,” Sanderson wrote. “We are not more or less concerned about secular trends, competitive dynamics, business models or management execution following strong third-quarter reports and a somewhat mixed outlook versus expectations.”
