Stocks are within range of records after retreating from the all-time highs they hit last week.
For the investor trying to play catch-up to the rally, one FANG stock is best, Oppenheimer’s head of technical analysis Ari Wald says.
“One name that stands out — household name, it’s in this high-beta index — it’s Netflix, ” Wald said on CNBC’s “Trading Nation ” on Monday. “The stock is pretty much unchanged over the last year, but we’re siding with what is still a long-term uptrend that is pointed higher.”
Netflix, whose FANG members are Facebook, Amazon and Google parent Alphabet, has held in a tight trading range since an early rally this year.
After holding flat over the past three months, it now appears ready for a breakout, Wald said.
“The key support level is $337. That’s the 200-day moving average. From a trading basis, put your stop there, but I think you get the breakout through $385,” he said. “That’s the level that has held back the stock through this year-long range. I think you get the breakout and that marks the resumption of Netflix’s long-time uptrend.”
Netflix would need to drop 8% to reach its 200-day moving average. A breakthrough to $385 represents 5% upside.
As for the broad market rally, Point View Wealth Management portfolio manager John Petrides says one thing could put more gains on hold.
“I am cautious heading into earnings season,” Petrides said during the same segment. “One of the comments [Fed Chairman Jerome Powell] made during his conference was that he’s seen business spending softening, and you’ve had a lot of CEOs very vocal during the month of May with the president increasing tariffs. That to me signals that maybe they’ve had a hard time pushing through pricing and margins could be pressured.”
In his post-meeting comments last week, Powell cited weaker business sentiment as one reason that chances for easing have risen. Meanwhile, Apple has warned that increased U.S. tariffs on China would limit its economic impact and affect nearly every one of its devices, while a rush of retailers including Walmart and Target have said it would lead to job losses.
Still, Petrides says any short-term quarterly impact could present a buying opportunity.
“Coming into earnings season, I’d be a buyer of those stocks that you know, miss by a penny and sell off aggressively,” he said.
Analysts expect blended S&P 500 earnings growth of nearly 4% this quarter, according to FactSet. Major banks Citigroup, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, Wells Fargo and JPMorgan kick off the second-quarter reporting season the week of July 15.