How Argentina feels tonight… (fwd to 2mins if you can’t bear to wait)
Since China intervened mid-month (ahead of the US-China trade talks), the Yuan strengthened and US equities soared (until decoupling the last few days)…
And bond yields have fallen (QE trade!?)
But Emerging Market currencies have started to collapse again…
The Nasdaq is on course for its best August since the year 2000…Things did not end well last time (-74% in under 3 years)
Ramping in an echo of January’s exuberance – …Things did not end well last time
And we note that VIX has recently decoupled from stocks…
Buoyant appetite for call options may offer one explanation for why VIX rose in tandem with equities in recent sessions. A similar situation preceded the record spike in volatility earlier this year that abruptly ended the previous stretch of all-time highs for U.S. stocks.
And finally, if you think stocks are rallying on fun-durr-mentals, you’re wrong!
But apart from that, BTFATH!!!
* * *
Chinese stocks continued to drift lower after Monday’s National Team pumpathon…
And record highs in US stocks, because why not! From 10amET (Freeland!?) to 1130pmET (EU close), there was a clear systemic bid across the entire US equity market. Cash markets closed on a weaker tone despite 1 billion MoC to buy…
Everything was clam overnight but the fact that US equity markets actually opened seemed to invoke a buying panic that ended when EU closed…
Treasury yields were mixed today with most of the curve up around 1-2bps only but the long end slightly lower…
30Y Yields remain above 3.00% but appear to have peaked in this micro-ramp…
The Dollar ended the day lower, once again though shifting-trend in the middle of the day…
The yuan has started to slide once again…
But EM FX was ugly. The Brazilian Real managed modest gains along with the Mexican Peso but the Argentine Peso collapsed and the Turkish Lira continued its renewed weakness…
Turkey is tumbling back toward pre-holiday record lows…
But the Argentine Peso was utterly destroyed… (biggest drop since 2015’s devaluation) ARS closed on its low tick, a fraction below the 34.0/USD level.
Cryptocurrencies were modestly lower today, legging down around the US equity open…
PMs managed gains amid the weaker dollar, copper slipped lower but WTI surged after inventory data…
WTI Crude is back up near the $70 handle once again…
And spot Gold is holding above $1200…
So much for the Fed balance sheet delta impacting stocks!!??
