Hot IPOs can be tough to gauge, particularly in a market like this where volatility is climbing and the declines are being exacerbated by trade-war worries. We've seen big declines in names like Lyft (LYFT) and more recently Uber (UBER) , although others like Pinterest (PINS) and Zoom Video (ZM) have been doing much better.
Zoom has been off to the races -- still up roughly 100% from its IPO price -- while Pinterest continues to hold onto its strong yet more reasonable gains. Shares have been chopping between $28 and $30 apiece for the past few sessions, even as volatility continues to heat up.
On Monday, Pinterest shares were down about 5% to $27.60 even as the VIX jumps 25% and while the Nasdaq is down 3%. Even though the recent IPO is underperforming the market, one could argue that the action is pretty impressive.
However, a few recent analyst initiations on Monday may suggest the upside is limited -- at least in the short term. Goldman Sachs started Pinterest with a neutral rating and $25 price target, while Barclays goes equal-weight with a $28 target. Baird is more optimistic, starting Pinterest stock off with an outperform rating and a $36 price target, implying about 30% upside.
As we alluded to earlier, the $26 to $28 area has been the recent range for Pinterest stock. However, that floor is giving way in Monday's session as sellers pound the market lower. The stock briefly took out last week's low at $26.90, a notable level moving forward.
If PINS stock can't recapture the $28 level as support, $26.90 stays relevant. Below that mark, traders will be eyeing the 50% Fibonacci retracement at $27.14 and the recent low in Pinterest stock, which is $26.90. Below that opens the door to a further drop.
The obvious downside level to watch is the day-one gap up from its IPO price right near $23. Before it gets there, though, there is the 61.8% retracement at $25.22 that could play a role as support, too. But the point is simple: Below $26.90 and Pinterest stock will be below all of its recent ranges and support levels, with the exception of the 61.8% retracement. At that point, we don't know where support will come into play and we'll have to wait and see which levels step up as support.
That's probably not what a lot of investors want to hear, but it's the truth. For now, see if PINS stock can maintain above the 50% retracement and $26.90. If it can, we may see it recapture $28 and ultimately push through downtrend resistance. To do so, though, Pinterest will likely need the broader market's support.