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Buying Canopy Growth Seems Expensive Right Now

It was nearly a month ago when I last wrote about Canopy Growth (NASDAQ:CDC) and what a month it’s been. I advised readers at that time that CGC stock was the best of the bunch if they were inclined to speculate. If you did (I didn’t), you’ve been rewarded with a gain of over 35%.

After two years of, to put it charitably, being stuck in neutral, there are some legitimately valid reasons to believe in cannabis stocks. And CGC stock would be a logical beneficiary.

But has the stock fully priced in all the good news the market has to offer? Time will tell, in the meantime let’s take a closer look at Canopy’s good month.

Good Things Come in Three’s

For starters, cannabis stocks got a lift from the presumptive election of Joe Biden to be the 46th President of the United States. I simply say presumptive for accuracy. The Electoral College will tie everything up in a bow in a few weeks. In the meantime, the markets are moving forward and reading the tea leaves of a Biden administration.

The second catalyst came from the states that passed ballot initiatives to legalize recreational and/or medical marijuana. The list of U.S. states that have legalized recreational marijuana continues to grow. And that’s important for Canopy because it’s the segment from which it generates most of its revenue.

And finally, Canopy delivered a “home run” of an earnings report. Now, that has to be taken into context.  The company did post positive earnings per share of 16 cents. But now investors will be looking to see if the company can do it again.

Is Legalization or Decriminalization on the Horizon?

My InvestorPlace colleague Lou Carlozo wrote an interesting article about the implications of the Marijuana Opportunity, Reinvestment and Expungement (MORE) Act. Among other things, passage of this act would federally deschedule cannabis. This would mean that marijuana would no longer be illegal on a federal level.

But is that the intention of the Biden administration? It’s hard to say. I ask the same question Thomas Niel asked. That is will this be the first priority in a Biden administration? Even if the Democrats gain control of the Senate, I’m not sure it will be, or should be.

One reason is that the nascent administration will officially own the pandemic after the inauguration. Another reason is that the MORE Act is more than an up-or-down vote on legalization. It is a social justice package unto itself. And I imagine that congressional leaders will not be able to help themselves in loading up the legislation with enough pet projects that it will be unrecognizable. But I’m a cynic. However, I’m not voting (or running for re-election).

In my last article, I wrote that Vice President-elect Kamala Harris talked about decriminalizing marijuana. But that’s not the same as what the MORE Act offers which is…more. It offers the holy grail for a company like Canopy.

Although, to be fair, Canopy has a network in place to make in-roads to the U.S. market regardless of what happens.

CGC Stock Is Still the Best of the Bunch

I know, enough about politics you say? But you have to understand the politics because cannabis is still a big picture issue. It’s not time to get granular yet. If Canopy Growth continued to deliver mediocre results, than we would be having a different conversation. However that doesn’t mean that a blowout quarter means that the cannabis gravy train is steaming down the tracks.

CGC stock has climbed nearly 40% since the election. And we’re no closer to legalization now than we were then. Only your perception may have changed. As for me, I’m intrigued. I stand by the notion that Canopy is head-and-shoulders above the rest.  It is the most ready to take advantage of whatever happens regarding legalization in the United States.

That doesn’t mean I’m ready to buy. But if you’re willing to speculate, there are worse bets than CCG stock.