It had been a tough several years for LPs in Cripsin Odey’s hedge fund, who has for years predicted a market crash which, well, has yet to happen, and suffered dramatic losses as his predictions failed to panned out, with his flagship hedge fund plummeting in 2016 and 2017. That did not change his outlook, however, and in his latest newsletter sent earlier this month, he once again flagged his bearish views.
His funds are “positioned for more difficult times, invested in those companies that would be able to take advantage of a crisis, should it come along,” he wrote. “Who knows when that happens? As Noah said to the doubters, ‘How long can you tread water?’”
However, thanks to a correct bet on Italian bond volatility earlier in the year, The Odey European Inc. fund, which manages about $700 million, gained about 29% this year through Sep. 14, according to the latest HSBC weekly hedge fund tracker, making it the top performing hedge fund in 2018 ranked by HSBC.
And now, in a delightful irony, Odey is taking on even greater gains – on the long side of his book.
As Bloomberg rerorts, the London-based manager is one of the largest shareholders of both Sky Plc and Randgold Resources, the two-biggest gainers of the STOXX Europe 600 Index on Monday, amid a flurry of merger announcements. Randgold surged more than 6% after Canada’s Barrick Gold agreed to buy the gold miner in a $18 billion deal, while Sky surged as much as 8.8% after Comcast won the auction for the U.K. broadcaster with a bid of 17.28 pounds a share, a premium of 9% to Sky’s Friday closing price.
“I’m very pleased. It was a great price,” Odey told Bloomberg of Sky the final Sky deal in a phone interview, adding that he added to his bets when the shares traded at 14.92 pounds. Odey had previously predicted that a deal could fetch as much as 18 pounds a share.
And so, if the world really does end tomorrow, all the pain his LPs took for so many years will finally have been worth it. The only question is how many of them are left.